US vaccine prog hit by 'pause' on J&J vaccine after blood clot reports. Image Source: IANS News

New Delhi, May 18 : A supply-based model for India's Covid-19 vaccinations developed by international bank Investec estimates a total spend of Rs 750 billion ($ 8 billion) for calendar year 2021 including Rs 32 billion by April for India as a whole including centre, states and private sector.

Based on current supply visibilities (imports / India mfg / new launches), 75% of India's population (above 18 years of age) will get vaccinated by October'21, Investec said.

This assumes all of the manufactured / imported vaccine can be administered by India's existing health care infrastructure setup.

"We expect a total of 8 vaccines to be available by October including Pfizer / Novavax / JnJ / Cadila / Biologically E", it said.

Supply will ramp up to 200m doses/month by August from current levels of 50- 60m and 250m plus doses / month by October.

Pricing will be different across vaccines and across channels (Central Govt; State Govt; Private). The report said vaccines from Sputnik; J&J; Pfizer; Novavax are likely to get imported first on launch and then later get manufactured in India (so far Pfizer has no tie ups for manufacturing in India).

Supply constraint is likely to ease with new launches to aid. "Given the recent capacity ramp up announcements by both Serum & Bharat Biotech, and the recent approval for Sputnik V, we expect total monthly supplies to ramp upto 200m doses / month by August from the current levels of 50-60m doses," Investec said.

Serum is expected to ramp up monthly capacity from 70m to 100m over next few months whereas Bharat Biotech to ramp up from 7-8m currently to 50 m by Jun & 60-70m by Sep-Oct'21. Sputnik V to start selling in India since May'21 (initially through imports) and will be supplying 25m doses monthly by Jul'21 - this could be higher initially.

"Apart from Sputnik launch in May'21, we expect Cadila & J&J to launch by June/July21. Pfizer is expected to launch in September'21", Investec said.

Recently, Serum announced that Novavax could launch in India sooner than expected - June vs October earlier, once it gets a EUA in US. All new launches combined should supply 50-60m doses monthly by October thus taking total monthly supply from 200m doses in August to 250 m by October, Investec said.

Investec said both Serum & Bharat Biotech are the key beneficiaries as we expect them to occupy a large share in CY21 given huge capacities and early entry in the Indian market. Sputnik V, with its imports and local manufacturers, should be the next biggest player with 10-15% value share. New players would share the remainder.

"We do not see a huge ramp up by most of these new players given a large part of India's requirements would be fulfilled by then. At a net margin of 30%, the profit pool is Rs 150bn ($2bn) just in CY21 -Serum / Bharat Bio / Sputnik / Cadila may get the most of it. It appears that the payback periods could be short. This is without counting the possibility of a multiyear opportunity in India & export markets. Given the pandemic scenario and the large profit pool, we believe Govt to renegotiate pricing", Investec said.

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